The model ranked all 48 teams before a ball was kicked. Here is how that blind call held up against the real bracket — who delivered, who beat the odds, and who fell short.
| Pre-tournament pick | Title odds | Finished |
|---|---|---|
 Argentina | 18.5% | Final |
 Spain | 18.3% | Final |
 England | 8.5% | Semi-finals |
 France | 7.9% | Semi-finals |
 Mexico | 4.3% | Round of 16 |
 Brazil | 3.9% | Round of 16 |
 Germany | 3.5% | Round of 32 |
 Colombia | 3.4% | Round of 16 |
Green = reached at least its expected depth · red = fell short.
NorwayQuarter-finals · 1.9% to win
SwitzerlandQuarter-finals · 1.3% to win
MoroccoQuarter-finals · 2.9% to win
EgyptRound of 16 · 0.1% to win
BelgiumQuarter-finals · 3.0% to win
TurkeyGroups · 1.6% to win
IranGroups · 0.9% to win
UruguayGroups · 0.9% to win
South KoreaGroups · 0.6% to winGermanyRound of 32 · 3.5% to winSpain18.3% → 100.0%Argentina18.5% → 0.0%The two finalists — Spain & Argentina — were the model's top two pre-tournament. Their odds soared as the field cleared.
Open the full dashboards: live · pre-tournament (blind)