The first 48-team World Cup is done — Spain beat Argentina 1–0 (a.e.t.) in the final. Here is how it played out, and how the model's blind pre-tournament call held up.
A one-sided final — Spain controlled the ball, the shots and the expected goals.
Ranked by title odds before a ball was kicked, here is how many of the model's top N reached the last N — perfect at the sharp end. Its pre-tournament 2nd pick, Spain, lifted the trophy.
Full skill + calibration breakdown in the model report card.
Five knockout wins to the title.
The model's live title odds across the tournament — Spain climbing to the crown as the field cleared.
Poisson (Dixon-Coles) + Elo · worldcup2026ml.pt